Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before September 10, 2026
UFC — 3 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
27 snapshots across 27 days (Aug 6 – Sep 1), 1 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Sep 1, 08:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Alexandre Pantoja’s fair probability moved from 51.5% (Aug 6) to 47.8% (Aug 11) — a -3.7 pts shift. Price -117 → +100 across 1 book.
Robelis Despaigne’s fair probability moved from 79.4% (Aug 7) to 81.1% (Sep 1) — a +1.7 pts shift. Price -475 → -540 across 1 book.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Mauricio Ruffy vs Arman Tsarukyan — 23.9% / 76.1% fair, +0.2 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Alexandre Pantoja (Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van)
Aug 6
51.5%
-117 · 1bk
Aug 7
47.8%
+100 · 1bk
Aug 8
46.8%
+105 · 1bk
Aug 9
46.8%
+105 · 1bk
Aug 10
47.8%
+100 · 1bk
Aug 11
47.8%
+100 · 1bk
Robelis Despaigne (Robelis Despaigne vs Tai Tuivasa)
Aug 7
79.4%
-475 · 1bk
Aug 8
79.4%
-475 · 1bk
Aug 9
79.4%
-475 · 1bk
Aug 10
79.4%
-475 · 1bk
Aug 11
79.4%
-475 · 1bk
Aug 12
79.4%
-475 · 1bk
Aug 13
79.4%
-475 · 1bk
Aug 14
80.1%
-500 · 1bk
Aug 15
81.3%
-550 · 1bk
Aug 16
81.1%
-540 · 1bk
Aug 17
81.1%
-540 · 1bk
Aug 18
81.1%
-540 · 1bk
Aug 19
81.1%
-540 · 1bk
Aug 20
81.1%
-540 · 1bk
Aug 21
81.1%
-540 · 1bk
Aug 22
81.1%
-540 · 1bk
Aug 23
81.1%
-540 · 1bk
Aug 24
81.1%
-540 · 1bk
Aug 25
81.1%
-540 · 1bk
Aug 26
81.1%
-540 · 1bk
Aug 27
81.1%
-540 · 1bk
Aug 28
81.1%
-540 · 1bk
Aug 29
81.1%
-540 · 1bk
Aug 30
81.1%
-540 · 1bk
Aug 31
81.1%
-540 · 1bk
Sep 1
81.1%
-540 · 1bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua VanUFC · Sep 10 | 51.5%-117 · Aug 6 | 47.8%+100 · Aug 11 | -3.7 pts | 1 |
| Robelis Despaigne vs Tai TuivasaUFC · Sep 10 | 79.4%-475 · Aug 7 | 81.1%-540 · Sep 1 | +1.7 pts | 1 |
| Mauricio Ruffy vs Arman TsarukyanUFC · Sep 10 | 23.7%+306 · Aug 7 | 23.9%+303 · Sep 1 | +0.2 pts | 1 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 2 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 1 stable · 0 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 27 snapshots across 27 days (Aug 6 – Sep 1), 1 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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