Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before September 11, 2026
Boxing and UFC — 3 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
11 snapshots across 3 days (Sep 9 – Sep 11), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Sep 11, 18:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Vincius Pires’s fair probability moved from 46.8% (Sep 9) to 41.2% (Sep 10) — a -5.6 pts shift. Price +105 → +135 across 1 book.
Jorge De Jesus’s fair probability moved from 59.5% (Sep 10) to 63.6% (Sep 11) — a +4.1 pts shift. Price -174 → -215 across 5 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Neemias Santana vs Shawn Marcos Da Silva — 87.4% / 12.6% fair, 0.0 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Vincius Pires (Vincius Pires vs Rafael Pereira)
Sep 9
46.8%
+105 · 1bk
Sep 10
43.8%
+120 · 1bk
Sep 10
42.9%
+125 · 1bk
Sep 10
42.9%
+125 · 1bk
Sep 10
41.2%
+135 · 1bk
Jorge De Jesus (Mercito Gesta vs Jorge De Jesus)
Sep 10
59.5%
-174 · 5bk
Sep 10
59.5%
-174 · 5bk
Sep 10
59.5%
-174 · 5bk
Sep 10
60.3%
-174 · 5bk
Sep 10
60.3%
-174 · 5bk
Sep 11
59.4%
-165 · 5bk
Sep 11
59.4%
-165 · 5bk
Sep 11
59.4%
-165 · 5bk
Sep 11
61.0%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 11
63.6%
-215 · 5bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincius Pires vs Rafael PereiraUFC · Sep 11 | 46.8%+105 · Sep 9 | 41.2%+135 · Sep 10 | -5.6 pts | 1 |
| Mercito Gesta vs Jorge De JesusBoxing · Sep 11 | 59.5%-174 · Sep 10 | 63.6%-215 · Sep 11 | +4.1 pts | 5 |
| Neemias Santana vs Shawn Marcos Da SilvaUFC · Sep 11 | 87.4%-1000 · Sep 9 | 87.4%-1000 · Sep 10 | 0.0 pts | 1 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 2 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 1 stable · 0 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 11 snapshots across 3 days (Sep 9 – Sep 11), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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