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Movement archive · market facts

What the market did before September 12, 2026

Boxing and UFC — 29 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.

29 snapshots across 17 days (Aug 14 – Sep 12), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Sep 12, 18:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.

Biggest market moves

UFCSean King vs Jessie Rosas

Jessie Rosas’s fair probability moved from 46.4% (Sep 7) to 34.0% (Sep 12) — a -12.4 pts shift. Price +105 → +185 across 8 books.

BoxingDominic Valle vs Francois Scarboro Jr

Francois Scarboro Jr’s fair probability moved from 22.1% (Sep 9) to 29.4% (Sep 11) — a +7.2 pts shift. Price +319 → +210.5 across 6 books.

BoxingLuis Alberto Lopez vs Daniel Lugo

Daniel Lugo’s fair probability moved from 14.3% (Sep 6) to 20.1% (Sep 12) — a +5.8 pts shift. Price +560 → +350 across 5 books.

UFCDavid Martinez vs Dan Ige

David Martinez’s fair probability moved from 72.1% (Sep 4) to 77.8% (Sep 12) — a +5.7 pts shift. Price -300 → -435 across 8 books.

UFCManon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso

Alexa Grasso’s fair probability moved from 34.5% (Sep 4) to 28.8% (Sep 12) — a -5.6 pts shift. Price +179 → +234.5 across 8 books.

Stable on this slate

These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.

  • Yair Rodriguez vs Jean Silva — 26.1% / 73.9% fair, +0.8 pts
  • Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado — 22.4% / 77.6% fair, +0.7 pts
  • Rafa Garcia vs Zhu Rong — 41.4% / 58.6% fair, +0.7 pts
  • Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki — 41.0% / 59.0% fair, -0.6 pts
  • Ramiro Jimenez vs Rodrigo Vera — 45.4% / 54.6% fair, +0.6 pts
  • Giovani Santillan vs Abass Barou — 75.7% / 24.3% fair, +0.6 pts
  • Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes — 37.3% / 62.7% fair, +0.1 pts
  • Jai Opetaia vs Noel Mikaelian — 9.2% / 90.8% fair, +0.1 pts
  • Regina Tarin vs J.J. Aldrich — 28.4% / 71.6% fair, 0.0 pts
  • Vincius Pires vs Rafael Pereira — 60.4% / 39.6% fair, 0.0 pts
  • Neemias Santana vs Shawn Marcos Da Silva — 12.6% / 87.4% fair, 0.0 pts

Capture by capture — top 3 movers

Jessie Rosas (Sean King vs Jessie Rosas)

Sep 7

46.4%

+105 · 5bk

Sep 8

40.0%

+142.5 · 8bk

Sep 9

39.6%

+141 · 8bk

Sep 10

36.4%

+166.5 · 8bk

Sep 11

35.8%

+170 · 7bk

Sep 11

35.8%

+170 · 7bk

Sep 11

35.8%

+170 · 7bk

Sep 11

35.8%

+170 · 7bk

Sep 11

35.8%

+170 · 7bk

Sep 12

34.2%

+180 · 7bk

Sep 12

34.3%

+180 · 7bk

Sep 12

34.2%

+180 · 7bk

Sep 12

34.4%

+180 · 8bk

Sep 12

34.0%

+185 · 8bk

Francois Scarboro Jr (Dominic Valle vs Francois Scarboro Jr)

Sep 9

22.1%

+319 · 4bk

Sep 10

23.9%

+313 · 5bk

Sep 10

25.7%

+260 · 5bk

Sep 10

25.7%

+260 · 5bk

Sep 10

25.6%

+260 · 5bk

Sep 10

25.8%

+260 · 5bk

Sep 11

27.0%

+247.5 · 6bk

Sep 11

27.0%

+247.5 · 6bk

Sep 11

28.4%

+232.5 · 6bk

Sep 11

28.4%

+232.5 · 6bk

Sep 11

29.4%

+210.5 · 6bk

Daniel Lugo (Luis Alberto Lopez vs Daniel Lugo)

Sep 6

14.3%

+560 · 5bk

Sep 7

14.3%

+560 · 5bk

Sep 8

14.9%

+533 · 5bk

Sep 9

16.1%

+483 · 5bk

Sep 10

16.0%

+523 · 5bk

Sep 10

16.0%

+523 · 5bk

Sep 10

15.3%

+523 · 5bk

Sep 10

15.3%

+523 · 5bk

Sep 11

16.8%

+450 · 5bk

Sep 11

16.8%

+450 · 5bk

Sep 11

17.6%

+425 · 6bk

Sep 11

18.1%

+412.5 · 6bk

Sep 11

18.4%

+391 · 6bk

Sep 12

20.1%

+350 · 5bk

Full slate — every bout

Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.

BoutFirstLatestFair ΔBooks
Sean King vs Jessie RosasUFC · Sep 1246.4%+105 · Sep 734.0%+185 · Sep 12-12.4 pts8
Dominic Valle vs Francois Scarboro JrBoxing · Sep 1222.1%+319 · Sep 929.4%+210.5 · Sep 11+7.2 pts6
Luis Alberto Lopez vs Daniel LugoBoxing · Sep 1214.3%+560 · Sep 620.1%+350 · Sep 12+5.8 pts5
David Martinez vs Dan IgeUFC · Sep 1272.1%-300 · Sep 477.8%-435 · Sep 12+5.7 pts8
Manon Fiorot vs Alexa GrassoUFC · Sep 1234.5%+179 · Sep 428.8%+234.5 · Sep 12-5.6 pts8
Jose Ramirez vs Alexis RochaBoxing · Sep 1230.6%+205 · Sep 725.2%+265 · Sep 12-5.4 pts6
Thomas Gantt vs Drakkar KloseUFC · Sep 1280.2%-525 · Sep 976.0%-370 · Sep 12-4.1 pts7
Oswaldo Jesús Molina Jiménez vs Pablo Rubio JrBoxing · Sep 1258.5%-160 · Sep 954.9%-143.5 · Sep 12-3.6 pts4
Kennedy Rayomba vs Andrej KalasnikUFC · Sep 1278.2%-550 · Sep 1081.3%-550 · Sep 12+3.1 pts1
Vlad Panin vs Dakota LingerBoxing · Sep 1218.0%+420.5 · Sep 915.0%+529.5 · Sep 12-3.0 pts6
Brandon Moreno vs Joseph MoralesUFC · Sep 1254.0%-130 · Sep 451.2%-115 · Sep 12-2.9 pts8
Tim Elliott vs Edgar ChairezUFC · Sep 1266.4%-222.5 · Sep 463.9%-196 · Sep 12-2.5 pts8
Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden SantosUFC · Sep 1216.1%+500 · Sep 414.1%+600 · Sep 12-2.0 pts8
Maurice Adorf vs Vladimír LengálUFC · Sep 1282.4%-800 · Sep 1084.0%-700 · Sep 12+1.6 pts1
Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim SalikhovUFC · Sep 1280.1%-525 · Sep 481.2%-550 · Sep 12+1.1 pts8
Yair Rodriguez vs Jean SilvaUFC · Sep 1225.3%+279 · Aug 1426.1%+267 · Aug 19+0.8 pts6
Jean Silva vs Jose DelgadoUFC · Sep 1221.7%+350 · Aug 2122.4%+327.5 · Sep 12+0.7 pts8
Rafa Garcia vs Zhu RongUFC · Sep 1240.7%+135.5 · Sep 441.4%+131 · Sep 12+0.7 pts8
Tommy McMillen vs Marwan RahikiUFC · Sep 1241.6%+130 · Sep 441.0%+135 · Sep 12-0.6 pts8
Ramiro Jimenez vs Rodrigo VeraUFC · Sep 1244.8%+113.5 · Sep 545.4%+115 · Sep 6+0.6 pts3
Giovani Santillan vs Abass BarouBoxing · Sep 1275.2%-400 · Sep 675.7%-400 · Sep 12+0.6 pts5
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Curtis BlaydesUFC · Sep 1237.3%+160 · Sep 437.3%+155 · Sep 12+0.1 pts8
Jai Opetaia vs Noel MikaelianBoxing · Sep 129.1%+1025 · Sep 119.2%+900 · Sep 12+0.1 pts5
Regina Tarin vs J.J. AldrichUFC · Sep 1228.4%+240 · Sep 928.4%+240 · Sep 120.0 pts7
Vincius Pires vs Rafael PereiraUFC · Sep 1260.4%-165 · Sep 1060.4%-165 · Sep 120.0 pts1
Neemias Santana vs Shawn Marcos Da SilvaUFC · Sep 1212.6%+661 · Sep 1012.6%+661 · Sep 110.0 pts1
Vojtech Garba vs Robert LauUFC · Sep 12 · 1 capture23.1%+316 · Sep 1223.1%+316 · Sep 12—1
Niamh Kinehan vs Alana CookUFC · Sep 12 · 1 capture78.6%-450 · Sep 1278.6%-450 · Sep 12—1
Daniel Ligocki vs Brajan PrzysiwekUFC · Sep 12 · 1 capture39.6%+145 · Sep 1239.6%+145 · Sep 12—1

Showing the side that moved most per bout. 15 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 11 stable · 3 single-capture.

Methodology

  • • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 29 snapshots across 17 days (Aug 14 – Sep 12), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
  • • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
  • • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
  • • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.

Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.

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