Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before October 25, 2026
Boxing and UFC — 9 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
82 snapshots across 71 days (Aug 16 – Oct 25), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Oct 25, 18:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Ross Driscoll’s fair probability moved from 30.7% (Oct 22) to 37.2% (Oct 25) — a +6.5 pts shift. Price +206 → +149.5 across 4 books.
Albert Gonzalez’s fair probability moved from 84.6% (Oct 19) to 89.3% (Oct 25) — a +4.6 pts shift. Price -950 → -1600 across 6 books.
Petr Yan’s fair probability moved from 59.1% (Aug 16) to 61.8% (Oct 17) — a +2.7 pts shift. Price -162 → -176 across 5 books.
O'Shaquie Foster’s fair probability moved from 61.2% (Sep 13) to 58.9% (Oct 25) — a -2.3 pts shift. Price -175 → -165 across 7 books.
Tarik Zaina’s fair probability moved from 9.7% (Oct 19) to 7.6% (Oct 25) — a -2.1 pts shift. Price +910 → +1325 across 6 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Shauna Browne vs Jade Burden — 24.2% / 75.8% fair, -0.7 pts
- Tiago Muxanga vs Muzamiru Kakande — 70.9% / 29.1% fair, -0.6 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Ross Driscoll (Archie Sharp vs Ross Driscoll)
Oct 22
30.7%
+206 · 3bk
Oct 23
35.9%
+153 · 4bk
Oct 24
34.9%
+153 · 5bk
Oct 24
35.7%
+150 · 5bk
Oct 24
35.7%
+150 · 5bk
Oct 24
35.8%
+150 · 5bk
Oct 24
36.1%
+150 · 5bk
Oct 25
37.0%
+150 · 5bk
Oct 25
38.5%
+150 · 5bk
Oct 25
37.4%
+150 · 5bk
Oct 25
36.8%
+160 · 5bk
Oct 25
37.3%
+149.5 · 4bk
Albert Gonzalez (Albert Gonzalez vs Edward Vazquez)
Oct 19
84.6%
-950 · 4bk
Oct 20
85.0%
-950 · 5bk
Oct 21
85.7%
-950 · 5bk
Oct 22
85.6%
-975 · 6bk
Oct 23
88.7%
-1600 · 6bk
Oct 23
88.7%
-1600 · 6bk
Oct 23
88.7%
-1600 · 6bk
Oct 23
88.7%
-1600 · 6bk
Oct 24
88.7%
-1600 · 6bk
Oct 24
88.7%
-1600 · 6bk
Oct 24
88.7%
-1600 · 6bk
Oct 24
88.7%
-1600 · 6bk
Oct 24
88.7%
-1600 · 6bk
Oct 25
89.3%
-1600 · 6bk
Petr Yan (Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili)
Aug 16
59.1%
-162 · 3bk
Aug 17
59.0%
-159.5 · 4bk
Aug 18
58.9%
-162 · 5bk
Aug 19
58.9%
-162 · 5bk
Aug 20
58.9%
-162 · 5bk
Aug 21
58.9%
-162 · 5bk
Aug 22
59.2%
-165 · 5bk
Aug 23
59.5%
-165 · 5bk
Aug 24
60.2%
-170 · 5bk
Aug 25
61.4%
-182 · 5bk
Aug 26
61.4%
-182 · 5bk
Aug 27
61.4%
-182 · 5bk
Aug 28
61.2%
-182 · 5bk
Aug 29
61.2%
-182 · 5bk
Aug 30
61.2%
-182 · 5bk
Aug 31
61.2%
-182 · 5bk
Sep 1
60.7%
-175 · 5bk
Sep 2
60.6%
-175 · 5bk
Sep 3
60.6%
-175 · 5bk
Sep 4
61.0%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 5
61.0%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 6
61.2%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 7
61.2%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 8
61.2%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 9
61.2%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 10
61.2%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 11
61.2%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 12
61.2%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 13
61.2%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 14
61.2%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 15
61.3%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 16
61.3%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 17
61.3%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 18
61.3%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 19
61.3%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 20
61.3%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 21
61.3%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 22
61.3%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 23
61.5%
-182 · 5bk
Sep 24
61.5%
-182 · 5bk
Sep 25
61.5%
-182 · 5bk
Sep 26
61.5%
-182 · 5bk
Sep 27
61.1%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 28
61.2%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 29
61.2%
-180 · 5bk
Sep 30
61.2%
-180 · 5bk
Oct 1
61.2%
-180 · 5bk
Oct 2
61.1%
-175 · 5bk
Oct 3
61.1%
-175 · 5bk
Oct 4
61.1%
-177 · 5bk
Oct 5
61.1%
-177 · 5bk
Oct 6
61.1%
-177 · 5bk
Oct 7
61.8%
-190 · 5bk
Oct 8
61.7%
-185 · 5bk
Oct 9
61.7%
-185 · 5bk
Oct 10
61.7%
-185 · 5bk
Oct 11
62.1%
-190 · 5bk
Oct 12
62.0%
-182.5 · 4bk
Oct 13
62.0%
-182.5 · 4bk
Oct 14
61.9%
-185 · 5bk
Oct 15
62.0%
-185 · 5bk
Oct 16
62.1%
-180 · 5bk
Oct 17
61.8%
-176 · 5bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Sharp vs Ross DriscollBoxing · Oct 25 | 30.7%+206 · Oct 22 | 37.2%+149.5 · Oct 25 | +6.5 pts | 4 |
| Albert Gonzalez vs Edward VazquezBoxing · Oct 25 | 84.6%-950 · Oct 19 | 89.3%-1600 · Oct 25 | +4.6 pts | 6 |
| Petr Yan vs Merab DvalishviliUFC · Oct 25 | 59.1%-162 · Aug 16 | 61.8%-176 · Oct 17 | +2.7 pts | 5 |
| Emanuel Navarrete vs O'Shaquie FosterBoxing · Oct 25 | 61.2%-175 · Sep 13 | 58.9%-165 · Oct 25 | -2.3 pts | 7 |
| Frank Martin vs Tarik ZainaBoxing · Oct 25 | 9.7%+910 · Oct 19 | 7.6%+1325 · Oct 25 | -2.1 pts | 6 |
| Alex Volkanovski vs Movsar EvloevUFC · Oct 25 | 49.0%-107.5 · Aug 16 | 50.2%-110 · Oct 17 | +1.2 pts | 5 |
| Jermaine Dhliwayo vs Jacob RobinsonBoxing · Oct 25 | 85.0%-1000 · Oct 25 | 86.3%-1250 · Oct 25 | +1.2 pts | 5 |
| Shauna Browne vs Jade BurdenBoxing · Oct 25 | 24.9%+277.5 · Oct 25 | 24.2%+280 · Oct 25 | -0.7 pts | 3 |
| Tiago Muxanga vs Muzamiru KakandeBoxing · Oct 25 | 71.5%-325 · Oct 25 | 70.9%-300 · Oct 25 | -0.6 pts | 3 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 7 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 2 stable · 0 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 82 snapshots across 71 days (Aug 16 – Oct 25), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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