Movement archive · market facts
What the market did before October 29, 2026
Boxing — 5 bouts. Below is how each fight’s no-vig fair probability moved between its first and latest capture, with timestamps. These are market facts — what the prices did — not picks, not predictions, and no read on who won.
13 snapshots across 5 days (Oct 25 – Oct 29), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen. Latest capture Oct 29, 08:00 UTC. “Fair” = the book’s margin removed; a truer implied chance, not a forecast.
Biggest market moves
Toshiya Ishii’s fair probability moved from 81.8% (Oct 25) to 85.8% (Oct 29) — a +4.0 pts shift. Price -714 → -1100 across 3 books.
Arar Andales’s fair probability moved from 19.8% (Oct 27) to 17.2% (Oct 29) — a -2.6 pts shift. Price +380 → +450 across 1 book.
Sho Nogami’s fair probability moved from 38.3% (Oct 25) to 37.2% (Oct 29) — a -1.1 pts shift. Price +146 → +167 across 3 books.
Stable on this slate
These bouts barely moved (under 1.0 fair-prob point). Stated as a finding, not dressed up as movement.
- Kosuke Tomioka vs Atsuki Sano — 38.0% / 62.0% fair, -0.5 pts
- Tasana Salapat vs Yuta Sakai — 83.2% / 16.8% fair, -0.1 pts
Capture by capture — top 3 movers
Toshiya Ishii (Toshiya Ishii vs Ryuya Nihei)
Oct 25
81.8%
-714 · 1bk
Oct 26
81.8%
-714 · 1bk
Oct 27
82.3%
-700 · 3bk
Oct 27
82.4%
-700 · 4bk
Oct 27
82.4%
-700 · 4bk
Oct 28
82.4%
-700 · 4bk
Oct 28
82.4%
-700 · 4bk
Oct 28
83.8%
-832 · 4bk
Oct 28
84.2%
-891.5 · 4bk
Oct 28
84.2%
-891.5 · 4bk
Oct 29
84.4%
-916.5 · 4bk
Oct 29
85.2%
-966.5 · 4bk
Oct 29
85.8%
-1100 · 3bk
Arar Andales (Arar Andales vs Raito Kataoka)
Oct 27
19.8%
+380 · 1bk
Oct 27
19.8%
+380 · 1bk
Oct 28
19.8%
+380 · 1bk
Oct 28
19.8%
+380 · 1bk
Oct 28
19.8%
+380 · 1bk
Oct 28
19.8%
+380 · 1bk
Oct 28
17.2%
+450 · 1bk
Oct 29
17.2%
+450 · 1bk
Oct 29
17.2%
+450 · 1bk
Oct 29
17.2%
+450 · 1bk
Sho Nogami (Sho Nogami vs Shogo Tanaka)
Oct 25
38.3%
+146 · 1bk
Oct 26
38.3%
+146 · 1bk
Oct 27
38.6%
+143 · 3bk
Oct 27
38.9%
+143 · 4bk
Oct 27
38.9%
+143 · 4bk
Oct 28
39.3%
+141.5 · 4bk
Oct 28
39.3%
+141.5 · 4bk
Oct 28
39.3%
+141.5 · 4bk
Oct 28
39.8%
+141.5 · 4bk
Oct 28
39.3%
+143 · 4bk
Oct 29
38.0%
+153.5 · 4bk
Oct 29
38.1%
+157 · 3bk
Oct 29
37.2%
+167 · 3bk
Full slate — every bout
Consensus no-vig fair probability at first vs latest capture. Bouts with a single capture show the current price only — no movement claim.
| Bout | First | Latest | Fair Δ | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toshiya Ishii vs Ryuya NiheiBoxing · Oct 29 | 81.8%-714 · Oct 25 | 85.8%-1100 · Oct 29 | +4.0 pts | 3 |
| Arar Andales vs Raito KataokaBoxing · Oct 29 | 19.8%+380 · Oct 27 | 17.2%+450 · Oct 29 | -2.6 pts | 1 |
| Sho Nogami vs Shogo TanakaBoxing · Oct 29 | 38.3%+146 · Oct 25 | 37.2%+167 · Oct 29 | -1.1 pts | 3 |
| Kosuke Tomioka vs Atsuki SanoBoxing · Oct 29 | 38.5%+145 · Oct 29 | 38.0%+150 · Oct 29 | -0.5 pts | 3 |
| Tasana Salapat vs Yuta SakaiBoxing · Oct 29 | 83.3%-833 · Oct 25 | 83.2%-750 · Oct 29 | -0.1 pts | 2 |
Showing the side that moved most per bout. 3 bout(s) moved ≥ 1.0 pt · 2 stable · 0 single-capture.
Methodology
- • Source. An archive of combat-sport prices (UFC + boxing) captured from multiple books over time. 13 snapshots across 5 days (Oct 25 – Oct 29), 1–5 per day. Snapshots, not tick data — a price could move and settle between two captures and only the endpoints would be seen.
- • Fair probability. Each book’s two-sided price has its margin removed (no-vig), then averaged across books in probability space — never by averaging the American prices. A movement figure needs a complete two-sided price at both captures; single-sided markets show the price only.
- • Movement. The change in that fair probability between a side’s first and latest capture, in percentage points. A bout with one capture makes no movement claim.
- • What this is not. Not a pick, not a prediction, no read on why a price moved, and no result — this page does not say who won. Prices move for many reasons; it reports only that they did, and when.
Related: all archived slates · no-vig calculator · parlay vig calculator.
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