NCAAF · permanent market record
Toledo Rockets at Eastern Michigan Eagles
Kickoff 2024-11-02 16:00 UTC. What the market priced at four fixed anchors before kickoff, and what happened.
Closing market and outcome
Pinnacle, de-vigged, at close (kick−15m)
Eastern Michigan Eagles 24.3%
Toledo Rockets 75.7%
decimal 3.97 / 1.28 · american +297 / -363
Final score
Eastern Michigan Eagles 28
Toledo Rockets 29
final · winner away · total 57
Four anchors before kickoff
The us and eu book sets are disjoint, so they are never pooled into one consensus — a pooled number would average two different markets and be comparable to neither.
De-vigged Eastern Michigan moved -1.98 probability points between T-72h and close.
| Anchor | De-vig Eastern Michigan | Pinnacle Eastern Michigan | Books | Drift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first observed (T-72h) | 27.0% | 26.2% | 6 | 261s |
| T-24h | 25.4% | 24.7% | 7 | 261s |
| T-3h | 25.4% | 25.0% | 7 | 262s |
| close (kick−15m) | 25.0% | 24.3% | 6 | 261s |
De-vigged Eastern Michigan moved -1.91 probability points between T-72h and close.
| Anchor | De-vig Eastern Michigan | Pinnacle Eastern Michigan | Books | Drift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first observed (T-72h) | 26.9% | absent | 9 | 261s |
| T-24h | 25.6% | absent | 9 | 261s |
| T-3h | 25.4% | absent | 9 | 262s |
| close (kick−15m) | 25.0% | absent | 9 | 261s |
Every book at close · eu · 7 responded
| Book | Decimal Eastern Michigan / away | De-vig Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| betonlineag | 3.80 / 1.29 | 25.3% |
| everygame | 3.80 / 1.29 | 25.3% |
| gtbets | 3.80 / 1.29 | 25.3% |
| livescorebet_eu | 3.90 / 1.26 | 24.4% |
| marathonbet | 3.72 / 1.28 | 25.6% |
| pinnacle | 3.97 / 1.28 | 24.3% |
Responded: betonlineag, everygame, gtbets, livescorebet_eu, marathonbet, onexbet, pinnacle
Method, provenance, and what this does not establish
- • Anchors are fixed offsets from kickoff: T−72h, T−24h, T−3h, and close at kick−15m. Close is −15m because that is the latest offset empirically observed to still return the game with Pinnacle present; games leave the pre-match feed in the final ~15 minutes.
- • “First observed (T−72h)”, never “opening line”. T−72h is a deliberate offset, not a market event. This market opened days or weeks earlier, before any capture existed. Likewise “close (kick−15m)” — never “closing line” unqualified.
- • No interpolation. A missing anchor is rendered as not observed. Nothing is carried forward or filled in.
- • Measured drift is reported, never inferred. The endpoint floors to a snapshot grid, so each row records how far the returned snapshot sat from the requested mark — 261–262s here. snapshot_grid_seconds was not retained for this capture generation, so the grid interval is not shown. It is never assumed to be 300.
- • Pinnacle is absent from the us region at every anchor. That is structural — Pinnacle does not appear in the us book set — not a gap in this game’s capture.
- • The outcome was graded 2026-06-16, and the score source is not recorded for rows from that seed. We do not know which provider supplied it, so no provider is named here. The score is stated as stored, and its provenance is an open gap.
- • Probability points, not cents. American prices are discontinuous across ±100, so equal cent-moves are unequal probability moves. Decimal is derived per row for display; de-vigging uses the same audited path as the rest of the system.
- • This describes the market. It is not a prediction, it carries no forecast of ours, and it says nothing about whether any price was correct.
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