Logged before game time. Graded against ESPN final scores. No cherry-picking.
Last updated: Feb 23, 2026
Total Picks
321
192W — 119L — 10P
Win Rate
61.7%
vs 52.4% breakeven
Units Profit
+84.4u
26.3% ROI per pick
Track Record Since
Jun 2025
Live picks only
Per-day breakdown. Hover syncs both charts. Filter to any period.
Daily Win Rate
Daily Units P&L
+84.43u period total
Get the Daily Edge
Free AI market briefing before game time
Green = profitable month. Red = losing month. Intensity = margin of win/loss.
80%
Jun 25
16W 4L
55%
Jul 25
11W 9L
72%
Aug 25
23W 9L
54%
Sep 25
14W 12L
60%
Oct 25
26W 17L
58%
Nov 25
29W 21L
66%
Dec 25
25W 13L
59%
Jan 26
29W 20L
58%
Feb 26
19W 14L
Does higher model confidence actually predict better outcomes?
| Confidence | Picks | W–L | Win Rate | Units | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5/5 | 6 | 2–3 | 40.0% | -1.4u | Weak ✗ |
4/5 | 53 | 36–16 | 69.2% | +22.0u | Strong ✓ |
3/5 | 106 | 68–36 | 65.4% | +36.5u | Strong ✓ |
2/5 | 102 | 56–42 | 57.1% | +16.4u | Solid |
1/5 | 54 | 30–22 | 57.7% | +10.9u | Solid |
Where the model performs best. Ranked by win rate.
| # | Sport | Picks | W–L | Win Rate | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NHL | 40 | 28–12 | 70.0% | +16.8u |
| 2 | MLB | 40 | 25–15 | 62.5% | +12.2u |
| 3 | NFL | 50 | 31–19 | 62.0% | +13.9u |
| 4 | UFC | 78 | 48–30 | 61.5% | +20.6u |
| 5 | NBA | 40 | 24–16 | 60.0% | +9.8u |
| 6 | Soccer | 63 | 36–27 | 57.1% | +11.1u |
7.5u
Max Drawdown
L1
Current Streak
10 in a row
Longest Win Run
-9
Avg Odds
26.3%
ROI / Pick
+84.4u
Total Units
Logged before game time
All picks are timestamped in Supabase before the scheduled game start.
Graded from ESPN scores
Results verified against ESPN final scores. No manual override.
Source: The Odds API
20+ bookmakers tracked. Consensus odds used for fair value calculation.
Backtest methodology
ML model applied to real 2024–2026 historical odds. Not actual placed bets. Shown for calibration transparency only.
Full audit trail
Every pick, confidence score, and odds snapshot is stored permanently in our database.
| Date | Sport | Pick | Odds | Result | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Soccer | Uzbekistan ML | 1072 | LIVE | 6.5% |
| 2026-06-16 | Soccer | Iraq ML | 1225 | LIVE | 7.5% |
| 2026-06-16 | Soccer | Haiti ML | 2051 | LIVE | 10.4% |
| 2026-06-16 | Soccer | New Zealand ML | 1094 | LIVE | 6.6% |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 | -117 | LIVE | 7.9% |
| 2026-06-16 | Soccer | Saudi Arabia ML | 2345 | LIVE | 10.9% |
| 2026-06-16 | Boxing | Flora Pili ML | 1140 | LIVE | 6.9% |
| 2026-06-16 | Soccer | Jordan ML | 1339 | LIVE | 8.1% |
| 2026-06-16 | Soccer | Curaçao ML | 2384 | LIVE | 11.0% |
| 2026-06-16 | UFC | Elisha Ellison ML | 1200 | LIVE | 7.3% |
| 2026-06-16 | Soccer | Curaçao ML | 1628 | LIVE | 9.2% |
| 2026-06-16 | Soccer | Iraq ML | 2557 | LIVE | 11.2% |
| 2026-06-14 | NBA | Bucks +6 | +150 | W | — |
| 2026-06-14 | UFC | Fighter A ML | -120 | W | — |
| 2026-06-14 | NBA | Under 225.5 | -105 | W | — |
| 2026-06-14 | NHL | Panthers -1.5 | -150 | W | — |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Yankees -1.5 | -105 | W | — |
| 2026-06-14 | NHL | Maple Leafs ML | -130 | W | — |
| 2026-06-14 | NHL | Under 6 | +110 | W | — |
| 2026-06-14 | UFC | Over 1.5 | +170 | W | — |
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