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NCAAF · moneyline movement

Ohio State Buckeyes vs USC Trojans

Scheduled start 2026-10-31 16:00 UTC. Movement is shown in de-vigged implied probability points for USC Trojans, at fixed anchors before start. Every anchor reports the real time of the snapshot it used.

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No movement chart for this game

Across 372 snapshots the de-vigged price took only 2 distinct values at the anchors, starting from 31.6%. That is not enough to draw a movement chart honestly.

A chart needs at least three anchored observations and at least three distinct de-vigged prices. This game has 6 anchors and 2 distinct prices. Drawing a line through that would show a shape the market never made.

Also moved

• Consensus spread changed during the captured window.• Consensus total changed during the captured window.

Will this line move? What 2,925 NCAAF games say

Usually not far. From 72 hours before kickoff to the close, the NCAAF spread moved a mean 1.1 points. 30% of games moved 1.5 points or more, and 8% moved 3 or more. No direction held: the share of moves toward the favorite flipped from season to season, so there is no rule here for taking a number early or late.

Median spread across US books at each anchor, 2023 to date, measured 2026-10-26. Market facts, not a prediction for this game.

How to read this, and what it is not

  • • “First observed”, not “opening line”. Capture began 2026-08-26. The earliest row is the first price this system saw, which is not where the market opened — that happened before the capture existed.
  • • No interpolation. Each anchor is the last real snapshot at or before its mark, with the offset shown. A missing anchor is left missing.
  • • Probability points, not cents. American prices are discontinuous across ±100, so equal cent-moves are unequal probability moves. The prices in the table are display only.
  • • Coverage is uneven by sport. In the captured window, completed games with a full anchor series exist mainly for MLB, UFC and Soccer. NFL, NBA and NHL have snapshots but few completed games, so most of their pages will show the no-chart statement above.
  • • It describes the market. Movement is not a prediction and says nothing about the result.

Related: CLV calculator · no-vig calculator.

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